Daily Doc: BAT, Apr 4, 1979 : BAT on smoking in the Year 2000
Daily Doc: BAT on smoking in the Year 2000
Title: Year 2000
BAT, Apr 4, 1979
Bates #: 109883101/3103
May 18, 2000
This 1979 document lists the tobacco industry's predictions for the year 2000 about what they expect will affect their future sales and marketing worldwide. Note BAT's dependence upon the increasing smoking incidence among young women in Africa, Latin America and Asia to keep overall smoking incidence up in these areas (as per these quotes:)
"...increasing smoking incidence among young women will serve to maintain starting incidence..."and,
"Further female incidence will continue to rise in these regions. The net result will be a continuing growth in incidence although at a slower rate than previously..."It is also clear that the industry used low tar products to "reassure" smokers who were concerned about health, to help make them more comfortable about maintaining their addiction:
"...educated, middle-class adults who tend to react more rapidly and severely the S and H [smoking and health] pressures, represent only a small segment of the population. Although S and H concern will diffuse down through these societies the ready availability of Low Tar brands will supply high reassurance."And,
"Low tar products will eventually and substantially define the tobacco business. This will serve as an important mechanism for reassuring smokers..."With regards to youth smoking, BAT also states that
"in most markets we do not examine the smoking habits of people under the age of 15 years..."The document also enunciates the benefits to be conferred on the cigarette industry if there was "a backlash against 'do-gooders' because they are perceived as interfering with personal and individual freedom." The industry's political strategies (particularly Philip Morris-PM) revolved around this idea. PM fostered such a backlash through the creation of a multitude of organizations like the National Smokers Alliance and ARISE (Associates for Research In Substance Enjoyment).
CITATION
Title: Year 2000
Type of Document: Report
Author: British American Tobacco Company (BAT)
Date: 19790404
Recipient:
Site: http://www.tobaccodocuments.org (Rosswell Collection)
Page Count 3
Bates No. 109883101/3103
Litigation Usage: MN Trial Exhibit #11350
URL: http://www.tobaccodocuments.org/citation.cfm?bibID=95214&DisplayPages=yes
How found: Celia White at University of California at San Diego tipped me off to this document, which was originally found by Rosswell Park Cancer Institute. Thanks, Celia (and Rosswell!)
QUOTES
... Low tar products will eventually and substantially define the tobacco business. This will serve as an important mechanism for reassuring smokers...
...Many smokers underestimate their actual consumption...notably young people and women are often reluctant to admit they smoke. Further, in most markets we do not examine the smoking habits of people under the age of 15 years....
(a) in many markets the average tar diets are decreasing and this will become a worldwide phenomenon. (b) based on sales statistics smokers daily consumption levels are increasing and will continue to do so....
4. Incidence of smoking will only decline marginally below current levels in North America, Europe, W. Oceania and will continue to grow in Africa, Latin America and Asia. The reasons for this are:
(a) ...increasing smoking incidence among young women will serve to maintain starting incidence...Quitting rates will also not increase as existing smokers become increasingly reassured by the growth of Low Tar brands and increasingly reassuring health reports.
(b) In the latter 3 regions educated, middle-class adults who tend to react more rapidly and severely the S and H [smoking and health] pressures, represent only a small segment of the population. Although S and H concern will diffuse down through these societies the ready availability of Low Tar brands will supply high reassurance. Further female incidence will continue to rise in these regions. The net result will be a continuing growth in incidence although at a slower rate than previously...
5. As the strength of medical arguments against the smoking habit is weakened anti-smoking proponents will increasingly direct their attention to socially undesirable aspects of the habit...
(a) smokers who refrain or give up in response to pressures from family or friends who say that smoking will harm the health of the smoker. The strength of this argument will diminish as markets become dominated by lower risk products., e.g. Gori formula. (b) smokers who refrain or give up in response to pressure from non-smokers who believe that ambient smoke causes harm to their health. This argument is also likely to be alleviated as lower risk products spread, (c) smoker who refrain or give up in response to pressure from non-smokers to whom smoke causes offence (small, eye irritation, perceived room pollution). ...This segment...may even grow if the consumerist/environmentalist movement continues to grow. Its significance will only be diminished if at least one of the following events occurs:
(i) environmentally less unpleasant cigarettes are developed... (ii) an acceptable environmentally less unpleasant or neutral substitute for cigarettes is developed, (iii) there is a backlash against "do-gooders" because they are perceived as interfering with personal and individual freedom. (iv) restrictions on smoking in public places, e.g. work places, are shown to be uncomfortable or to have undesirable consequences in terms of worsening social relationships and/or a reduction of work efficiencies and productivity.
6. Changes in fiscal policies relating to cigarettes will not increase their relative cost except at the highest delivery levels.
7. Increasingly severe restrictions on advertising will not in themselves cause a decline in demand for the product.
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