Daily Doc: PM, Jul 28, 1986: PM calaculates Italian smoking trends

Daily Doc: PM calaculates Italian smoking trends

PM, Jul 28, 1986
Bates #: : 2501078739%2F8833

August 1, 2000

The Philip Morris tobacco company (PM) stridently assures the public that it has no interest at all in youth using their products. They even stress to the media that they have created a special $100 million department just to fight youth smoking. Isn't it strange, then, that just a few short years ago PM's calculation of future cigarette consumption in Italy would be based in part on the cigarette consumption of what PM itself it refers to as "underage smokers," and would discuss
"The youngest adult segment, ages 15-24..."
It would appear from reading this document that PM fully intends to supply these "underage smokers" with cigarettes. Why else would this segment be included in the calculation of future cigarette use in Italy?

PM also acknowledges that anti-smoking campaigns and social pressures really do work to lower the smoking rate,
"Anti-smoking campaigns and social pressure against smoking influence the numbers of people who stop smoking,"
...but the document also says that PM needn't worry too much about this because
"In the medium term the effect [of these campaigns and social pressures] will not be as strong because of the existence of a large reserve of young smokers." [Italicized emphasis added.]
PM also discusses how the symbolism of smoking is an important marketing tool influencing youngsters to smoke:
"Smoking has been a symbol of emancipation and has been a very important factor influencing those who start smoking."
Hmmm... Now why would a tobacco company that claims so strongly that it doesn't want kids to smoke be so deeply concerned that smoking be portrayed as a "symbol of emancipation" ? After all, most adults are already fully emancipated....

Type of Document: Report with charts, graphs
Author Corporate author (Philip Morris Tobacco Co.). Found in the area of PM's Finance Department/EU Archive Recipient: N/A
Date: 19860728
Site: Philip Morris Tobacco Company document site http://www.pmdocs.com/
Length: 95 pages
Bates No. 2501078739/8833
URL on PM site: (of entire 95 page document) http://www.pmdocs.com/getallimg.asp?DOCID=2501078739/8833
URL on Tobacco Documents Online: (TDO is now the best way to view documents: you can view as many pages as you like, as well as magnify and rotate pages. You may have to cut and paste this URL into your browser): http://my.tobaccodocuments.org/tdo/index.cfm?menuitem=fullcit&dispResults=yes&startbates=2501078739%2F8833
Litigation Usage: N/A (yet)
Found Using Search Criteria: "PME and Italy" (PME stands for Philip Morris Europe)

The purpose of this analysis is to forecast the long term evolution of EEC [European Economic Community] cigarette markets....

This analysis calculates the market size for each EEC country based on the number of regular smokers and per capita consumption. Using this data...the bulk (75-80%) of the market can be predicted. The remaining 15-20% consists of the following:

--Tourist and non-resident consumption (5-10%) --Underage smokers (2-4%)
--Occasional smokers (1%)
--Reporting errors (5-10%...

...The growth rate of the young adult segment of the population, which fueled the increase in smoking incidence in recent years, is slowing down.

The social environment and attitudes toward smoking are rapidly changing resulting in obvious long-term implications for smoking. Smoking has been a symbol of emancipation and has been a very important factor influencing those who start smoking. Anti-smoking campaigns and social pressure against smoking influence the numbers of people who stop smoking.

In the long term these two factors, those who stop and those who start, will have a very large impact on the future number of smokers. In the medium term the effect will not be as strong because of the existence of a large reserve of young smokers compared to the relatively small number of older smokers.

...The youngest adult segment, ages 15-24, will decline by 0.9 million, or 10% while the older groups will increase.... This will have an impact on Philip Morris' target market group, young adults. While the weight of young adults 15-24 will decline from 19% to 16% of the Italian market, the actual decline in volume is about 15% or 2.9 billion cigarettes...

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Anne Landman, Regional Program Coordinator
American Lung Association of Colorado, West Region Office
Grand Junction, CO
(970) 245-2120
This document's URL is: http://www.tobacco.org/Documents/dd/ddpmitalian.html

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