"Quick and Dirty" Update: Brooke Group Ltd./Liggett Group Inc; Joel D. Luton, APS Financial Corporation
For Institutional Accounts Only
August 25, 1998 Joel D. Luton (512) 314-4433
This is a high risk investment, no investor should purchase these securities unless such investor understands and is able to bear the risks, including the yield, liquidity, interest, event and other risks, associated with the securities
.A"Quick and Dirty" Update
on
Brooke Group Ltd./Liggett Group Inc.
Favorable Second Quarter Results, Raising Liggetts 1998 Estimates
Tobacco Industry Negotiating with the States
| Issue | Coupon | Maturity | Amt. O/S | Price# | YTM** | Rating |
| Brooke Group (BGLS Inc.) | ||||||
| Senior Secured | 15.75% | 01/31/01 | $232.9MM | 70-72 | 33.40% | NR/NR |
| Liggett Group | ||||||
| Senior Secured | 11.50% | 02/01/99 | $112.6MM | 72-74 | 91.50% | NR/NR |
| Senior Secured | 19.75% | 02/01/99 | $32.3MM | 80-82 | 74.10% | NR/NR |
Footnotes:
** Based on the offered side.
# These are estimated current prices, actual prices may vary due to limited liquidity.
Previous Credit Update: April 22, 1998 (for additional background information, refer to previous research)
- Liggett Groups 2nd Quarter Results ~ EBITDA Increases 71%
Brooke Group/Liggett Group recently released second quarter results (including 10Qs) ending June 30, 1998. With respect to Liggett, the Company reported its first quarterly revenue gain in several years. For the quarter (refer to attached income statement analysis), Liggetts revenues increased 6.7% to $83.4 million versus $78.1 million the previous year -- with a 7.4% decline in unit volume. The decline in unit volume was more than offset by the impact of the significant number of industry-wide cigarette price increases over the past year. We would also note that while volume declined, there was a good sequential improvement from the first quarter, which was down 12.5%. (We believe future volume trends may show actual signs of stabilization.) Reflecting the leverage of the price increases, EBITDA increased 71% to $10.6 million (after $1.5 million was paid to the settling states) versus $6.2 million a year-ago, with EBITDA margins improving 470 b.p. to 12.7% versus 8.0% a year-ago.
For the six months, revenues increased 3.2% to $149.0 million versus $144.4 million the previous year -- with a 9.8% decline in volume. The volume decline primarily reflects the continued leverage rebate program of competitors and their increased promotional activity. Reflecting the leverage of the price increases, EBITDA was $18.5 million, an 81% increase over the previous year of $10.1 million. EBITDA margins improved 540 basis points to 12.4%. For the six months, EBITDA-to-interest (interest adjusted for non-cash charges) coverage ratio significantly improved to 1.6 times versus 0.8 times for the year-ago period.
Since our last credit update (April 22, 1998), there have been two industry-wide cigarette price increases. In May 1998, primarily due to the industry settlement with the State of Minnesota, there was a 5 cent a pack price increase. On August 1998, the industry raised prices 6 cents a pack, or 3 percent. In our last credit update, we had been forecasting EBITDA of approximately $32 million, with the assumption of no additional price increases for the remainder of the year. With these two price increases, we are raising our EBITDA estimate to more than $40 million (see Financial Summary, page 4), with the assumption of no additional price increases for the remainder of the year. Given that the second half of the year is normally the stronger seasonal half (and the Companys EBITDA was $18.5 million in the first half), we believe our 1998 estimate is on the conservative side.
In June, after heated debate, the U.S. Senate pulled the plug on tobacco legislation (the McCain Bill). This controversial legislation, which the tobacco industry strongly opposed, would have raised tobacco taxes by approximately $516 billion dollars over 25 years. Under this proposed bill, Liggett was essentially excluded. While some form of federal tobacco legislation may ultimately pass, we are doubtful that it will occur this year.
With the failure of national tobacco legislation this summer, the tobacco industry has entered into closed-door discussions with the non-settling states. The states are seeking roughly $196 billion over 25 years from the industry. While we are uncertain of the details of the discussions, we believe that both sides have a strong incentive to reach a settlement. We also believe that a settlement could be reached as soon as mid-September -- before the State of Washingtons case against the industry goes to trial.
If the industry reaches an agreement with the states, we believe cigarette prices could be raised initially by 15 cents to 30 cents a pack (or possibly higher). For Liggett, such an increase would provide the Company with significant additional revenues and EBITDA. For instance, we estimate that an initial $0.15/per pack price increase could provide Liggett roughly an additional $40 million in annual revenues and $20 million in annual EBITDA.
If the industry reaches an agreement with the states by September, we believe refinancing the Liggett Senior Notes will not be a problem (or a short maturity extension to enable the Company time to refinance). We also believe, given Liggetts improving credit ratios, the Company may be able to refinance the debt without an industry/state settlement. If this issue is not resolved by maturity, then we believe extending the maturity of the Notes (or a portion of the Notes) is a strong possibility -- assuming that there continues to be a high probability of some form of a national tobacco settlement and special protection for Liggett. As stated in our April 22, 1998 Credit Update:
We continue to believe the Liggett Senior Notes are attractive from a risk/return standpoint for speculative investors. In our opinion, there is a high probability of the tobacco industry reaching an agreement with the states -- followed by industry-wide price increases. If so, Liggett would, in our opinion, be able to refinance the Senior Notes. If, however, the negotiations between the industry and states drags on into next year (or there is a possibility of Congressional action next year), then we believe Liggett will provide the Noteholders with strong incentives to extend the maturity. If the Noteholders do not agree to an extension (or a national agreement fails -- at both the state and federal level), we believe the Companys asset values will provide the Noteholders some protection on the downside.
APS Financial Corporation
(800) 248-0620
RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The securities discussed in this report are speculative in nature and may not be appropriate for all investors. No investor should purchase these securities unless such investor understands and is able to bear the yield, liquidity, interest, event and other risks associated with such securities. These risks could adversely affect expected returns and/or result in substantial loss. Information herein has been obtained from public sources believed to be accurate and reliable. However APS Financial Corporation cannot guarantee the accuracy of completeness of any information or results obtained from the use of such information. Any opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. We do not undertake to advise you as to any order to buy/sell. APS Financial, our affiliates, employees and their families, thereof may have positions in securities referred to in this review and any make purchases or sales thereof while this report is in circulation. If you have any questions about the information provided, please contact your investment representative prior to making any investment in the security. Since some investments in securities have unique tax implications and consequences, such` as original issue discount, you should consult your tax advisor, as necessary, prior to making this investment.
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